This was an interesting question I was asked on Quora so here we are.
Frankly, I think the question is a bit confusing, or confused. Startup is a stage not an industry.
Industries and innovations exist, burst, get replaced, and thrive. The typewriter industry, for example, was killed by the computer.
You might think of a “startup” as equal parts innovation and market development.
A business that develops the market but that isn’t innovative (e.g. a real estate firm, a beverage maker, an ISP, etc.) can be a thriving business but if new, it wouldn’t be a “startup.”
An innovation that doesn’t develop the market (e.g. IP, an invention, etc.) can’t be a business and when new is really just an idea. Also, not a “startup.”
Thus “startup” is just a stage of a new business that is both innovative and marketing.
The first startup was whomever traded for fire when fire was newly discovered.
There will always be startups, they don’t collectively burst, they always just are.