“I’ll See It When I Believe It,” Entrepreneurs and Startup Investors Put Conviction Before Cash Flow

That tired phrase has been responsible for more missed fortunes than bad timing or bad luck. It’s the refrain of cautious uncles, small-town bankers, and risk-averse executives who prefer their innovation the way they prefer their wine: aged, tested, bottled, and priced at a predictable markup. But in the world of entrepreneurship, that order of operations is precisely backward.

For the entrepreneur, belief comes first. Always.

We’re in an era of innovation in which people in my work are constantly helping the economy understand distinctions – entrepreneur vs. business owner, startup vs. new business, angel investor vs. business partner – because it’s the distinction of what people are doing that better aligns talent, resources, capital, and programming, with the appropriate working that’s being done. Much of what contributes to failure is the waste and misdirection that occurs when economies and communities mismatch. That fact is what has us here, when I was asked if it was fair to say that what characterizes an entrepreneur is that mindset supersedes money.

No founder worth the name waits around to “see” the data before taking the leap. They’re compelled by conviction (often irrational, sometimes borderline delusional) that the world could be different, and they are the ones who will bend it. They mortgage homes, walk away from careers, and talk strangers into joining them in pursuit of an invisible opportunity. Belief, not proof, is the engine of entrepreneurship.

That rule applies even more to angel investors and venture capitalists.

Seeing Isn’t Investing

The dirty secret of early-stage capital is that most people calling themselves “venture investors” aren’t. They’re spreadsheet hobbyists. I walked out of a dinner last night where the discussion among the investors was frustration with some of their peers pushing pre-seed founders to focus on revenue, to which I remarked, “the mistake you’re making is calling them peers.” Some investors want to see revenue traction, a working prototype, defensible margins, and a path to predictable multiples, and in many contexts, that’s completely appropriate (a new business). There is nothing wrong with that, except it misleads entrepreneurs who can’t (or shouldn’t). That’s buying proof, not creating it, and many things can and should but innovative ventures, startups, by and large are not yet ready to do so.

Early-stage investing is about betting on people and markets, not numbers. Marc Andreessen has argued that by the time you can see the traction, you’re too late.

• Amazon was laughed at for losing money selling books online. Jeff Bezos didn’t raise money by proving profitability; he raised it by insisting that everything could be sold online. Investors believed before they saw.
• Tesla nearly went bankrupt multiple times. Rational bankers wouldn’t support such a thing, while Elon Musk convinced backers on belief that electrification was inevitable.
• Airbnb? Investors rejected them repeatedly because “no one would stay in a stranger’s home.” The ones who said yes, said yes on belief, not ARR.

Conviction precedes cash flow. It always has.

Between Mind and Money, Which One Matters?

Don’t misunderstand me: money matters. It builds prototypes, pays rent, hires talent. But to put money ahead of mindset is to mistake the fuel for the driver.

The most important resource an entrepreneur has is not capital, but cognitive resilience: the ability to persist on belief when the evidence isn’t there yet. Angela Duckworth called this grit, “passion and perseverance for long-term goals. Venture research backs this up: the Kauffman Foundation has shown that entrepreneurial persistence, not initial funding, is the strongest predictor of eventual firm survival. We have the psychological studies that show that certain types of personalities are more likely to succeed.

Money is abundant (yes, it actually it). Ideas are plentiful. But the mindset to see opportunity where others don’t, and to hold belief long enough to make it visible, is rare.

That’s why the cliché of “I’ll believe it when I see it” is fatal to entrepreneurs. If you wait for the world to validate you before acting, you’re not an entrepreneur, you’re a manager of what already exists. The true founder operates inversely: “I’ll see it when I believe it.”

What Startup Investors Do Differently

This inversion is the litmus test between venture capital and everything else that masquerades as it.

• If you need the proof before you believe, you’re not a venture investor. You’re a lender or a late-stage buyer.
• If you can believe before you see, you’re actually fueling innovation.

And in fairness, we don’t mean blind faith. Conviction-based investing demands pattern recognition, market insight, and hard questions. The best VCs are betting on people, markets, and timing, not on spreadsheets pretending to forecast certainty ten years out because we KNOW that the capable entrepreneur has the experience or the methodology to deliver that pattern recognition, those market insights, and to take on the hard questions.

As Chris Dixon of a16z put it, “The next big thing will start out looking like a toy.” If you wait until the toy has a business model, you’ve missed the next big thing.

Founders, invert the lens. Don’t just take anyone’s money. Pay attention to how potential investors respond to you.

• If they ask only about revenue, churn, and cash flows today, they’re buying comfort, not building risk.
• If they ask about how the world is shifting, how you’ll recruit, how you’ll pivot, they’re operating in belief.

Your first filter isn’t who has the biggest check. It’s who shares the conviction that makes the future visible.

Belief Shapes Perception

“I’ll believe it when I see it” is for spectators. Entrepreneurs and real investors flip it: I’ll see it when I believe it.

Belief shapes perception. Belief precedes execution. Belief makes the invisible opportunity visible.

And if you’re raising money, here’s the uncomfortable but freeing truth: you don’t need everyone to believe. You just need the few who do.